Now 60 games into the 2011 season, the Reds are 30 up and 30 down. It's easy to write this team off as a non-contender, but it's way too early. Why? First, let's get three things out of the way. The offense, defense, and relief pitching are fine. Offensively, the Reds are 2nd in the NL in runs scored. They're 4th in defense (at least using fielding percentage), and the bullpen has been spectacular despite wearing down of late due to the main culprit on this team, the starting pitching.
Now let's cut to the chase. The starting pitcing has been abysmal. Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, and Travis Wood have ERAs of 5.37, 6.35, and 5.72. Arroyo is actually the team leader in ERA from a qualifying standpoint because Cueto doesn't yet have enough innings. This is all bad news, but it's also the good news.
Last April the Reds came out of the gate 8-11 for the exact same reason. Starting pitching was terrible, but here's the thing. The starters quickly reverted to their career norms and the team took off. I personally don't think that Arroyo, Volquez and Wood will end the season with such poor ERAs. As things even out and they become consistent, the Reds should finish strong. The key for this team is to get Volquez and Bailey back in the rotation and pitching well. The rest should take care of itself. If Wood can't become more consistent, Mike Leake is another option who has pitched well of late.
If the starting pitching performs to their expected levels, these Reds will be just fine. In a short 13 game stretch when all five were healthy and doing their thing, the Reds went 11-2. There's no reason that they can't do so again to correct what has happened over the past 18 games. The key will be consistency moving forward.
Sunday, June 5, 2011
One of those days
Saturday's Reds-Dodgers outcome was a sobering reminder of those three games in Atlanta, Philadelphia and San Francisco last leason when the Reds couldn't hold a large late inning lead. Fortunately, that last one was still a W. Unfortunately, Saturday's mid-90s temperatures likely led to the end of Johnny Cueto's day despite only having thrown 88 pitches. The heat apparently got to Clayton Kershaw an inning prior to that. I had no problem with Baker's decision. The bullpen simply has to get the job done and they didn't.
Some things are apparent and have been for some time. Gomes isn't getting the job done in LF, nor is Fred Lewis. Chris Heisey has struggled when beginning the game in the starting lineup for some reason. That being the case, he hasn't exactly been given a decent opportunity to start everyday and get settled in. Gomes has several years showcasing his inability to hit right handed pitching. Yes, he drove in 86 runs last year due to a torrid start and an abundance of RBI opportunities but the Reds can't depend on statistics which are heavily team dependent and expect the same outcome a year later.
The left side of the infield has also been highly unproductive. Rolen has to get going if he's healthy, or he needs to go back on the DL and Juan Francisco and his powerful bat (along with his substanard glove and plate discipline) need to take some swings. Hopefully he can hit enough to offset his other shortcomings. Renteria and Janish should be on a very short leash at this point as well as Zack Cozart has been hitting well at Louisville. While his numbers may not translate to a highly successful major league hitter, it probably can't get any worse. His callup should also mean Renteria would be designated for assignment.
The Reds need to make the moves necessary to get going before it's too late. This is a time to be shrewd and decisive, not sentimental.
Some things are apparent and have been for some time. Gomes isn't getting the job done in LF, nor is Fred Lewis. Chris Heisey has struggled when beginning the game in the starting lineup for some reason. That being the case, he hasn't exactly been given a decent opportunity to start everyday and get settled in. Gomes has several years showcasing his inability to hit right handed pitching. Yes, he drove in 86 runs last year due to a torrid start and an abundance of RBI opportunities but the Reds can't depend on statistics which are heavily team dependent and expect the same outcome a year later.
The left side of the infield has also been highly unproductive. Rolen has to get going if he's healthy, or he needs to go back on the DL and Juan Francisco and his powerful bat (along with his substanard glove and plate discipline) need to take some swings. Hopefully he can hit enough to offset his other shortcomings. Renteria and Janish should be on a very short leash at this point as well as Zack Cozart has been hitting well at Louisville. While his numbers may not translate to a highly successful major league hitter, it probably can't get any worse. His callup should also mean Renteria would be designated for assignment.
The Reds need to make the moves necessary to get going before it's too late. This is a time to be shrewd and decisive, not sentimental.
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