Now 60 games into the 2011 season, the Reds are 30 up and 30 down. It's easy to write this team off as a non-contender, but it's way too early. Why? First, let's get three things out of the way. The offense, defense, and relief pitching are fine. Offensively, the Reds are 2nd in the NL in runs scored. They're 4th in defense (at least using fielding percentage), and the bullpen has been spectacular despite wearing down of late due to the main culprit on this team, the starting pitching.
Now let's cut to the chase. The starting pitcing has been abysmal. Bronson Arroyo, Edinson Volquez, and Travis Wood have ERAs of 5.37, 6.35, and 5.72. Arroyo is actually the team leader in ERA from a qualifying standpoint because Cueto doesn't yet have enough innings. This is all bad news, but it's also the good news.
Last April the Reds came out of the gate 8-11 for the exact same reason. Starting pitching was terrible, but here's the thing. The starters quickly reverted to their career norms and the team took off. I personally don't think that Arroyo, Volquez and Wood will end the season with such poor ERAs. As things even out and they become consistent, the Reds should finish strong. The key for this team is to get Volquez and Bailey back in the rotation and pitching well. The rest should take care of itself. If Wood can't become more consistent, Mike Leake is another option who has pitched well of late.
If the starting pitching performs to their expected levels, these Reds will be just fine. In a short 13 game stretch when all five were healthy and doing their thing, the Reds went 11-2. There's no reason that they can't do so again to correct what has happened over the past 18 games. The key will be consistency moving forward.
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